Track 12 · Predators · lesson 1
They all make the same four moves
11 min
Track 12 · Predators · lesson 1
11 min
The thing that makes this track possible is that there are not very many pitches. There are four moves, arranged in the same order, wearing different clothes.
Once you can name the move you are currently being shown, the pitch stops being a persuasive experience and becomes a recognisable sequence, which is a much less effective thing to be inside.
None of the four moves is a lie. That is what makes them durable and what makes "look out for false claims" such weak advice.
Each move is a true statement, or an unfalsifiable one, or a real social fact, arranged so that the conclusion you reach is one that nobody had to state. Being lied to is easy to defend against. Being handed a sequence of accurate components and left to assemble the wrong thing from them is not.
Before anything is claimed about returns, something is established about the person. Not qualifications — standing. The distinction matters.
The materials establish that they have done well, are trusted by people you would trust, have been doing this a long time, or have a connection you can verify. Any of these can be entirely true. What none of them can be is evidence about whether the thing on offer works, and the move relies on you not separating the two.
The strongest version uses somebody you already know. When the person telling you is a friend, a colleague or a member of your community, the standing move has already happened before anyone said anything, and it did not cost the operator anything to arrange.
Then comes an explanation of where the returns come from. It is always specific enough to satisfy and never specific enough to verify.
The forms rotate with the decade — an arbitrage between two markets, a relationship that gets access others do not have, a model, a technology, a regulatory quirk, an inefficiency that has not been noticed. The content is not the point. The structural property they share is that checking would require information the pitch does not provide and you cannot obtain.
Predict
This is the move that separates a competent pitch from an amateur one, and it is the one most people never notice.
Before you raise the obvious concern, the pitch raises it for you — and answers it. Sometimes with a genuine limitation, which is what makes it convincing. Nobody says "there is no risk"; they say "the risk is X, and here is how it is managed", where X is a real but manageable risk that is not the one that will actually cost you.
Two things happen at once. Your specific objection is now handled, so raising it again feels redundant. And the person has demonstrated candour, which is expensive to fake and therefore trusted — except that here it was not faked, merely aimed. They were candid about the wrong risk.
Not the same thing
Stating the risks that would change your decision if you understood them.
Naming a manageable risk in advance so that the listener's doubt is discharged on it.
Which is which? Put each one on a side.
A frank warning about volatility, in a product where your money is held by the seller
A statement of the worst outcome, what triggers it, and what you would be left with
A page describing the operator's own past losses, ending with what they learned
Last comes something that has to be decided now — a closing date, a limited allocation, a price that changes, a group that is filling up.
Its function is narrow and specific. It removes the overnight. Almost every one of these propositions is defeated by twenty-four hours of ordinary distance from the person presenting it, and the operator knows this better than you do, because they have watched it happen.
There is usually a small first step attached. A modest amount, an easily-reversible commitment, an introductory position. It is not there to make money. It is there because someone who has taken a small step has become someone who does this, and the second step is asked of a different person than the first.
Check
Every move described here is also used by legitimate businesses, and this is worth being clear about rather than glossing over.
Establishing standing is what a track record is for. Explaining a mechanism is what a company should do. Raising risks in advance is required of regulated sellers in most places. Deadlines exist because some things genuinely close.
The four moves are not a diagnosis. They are a description of how persuasion about money is structured, and recognising them tells you where you are in a sequence, not whether the thing is real. What tells you whether the thing is real is the next six lessons, and none of them is about the pitch.